The time is not on the side of the Barisan National.

24 hrs after UMNO Youth Chairman Hishammuddin announced that he will not seek another term, two person has come forward and offer themselves, and they are Mohd Khir Toyo and Mukhriz Mahathir. The first one is the former Menteri Besar of Selangor and the other is the son of the former Prime Minister.

On the other hand, Gua Musang division had the EGM and they have, amongst other thing, propose to abolish the Quota System in the UMNO election process. Under this rule, anybody who intended to be eligible for the post of the National President must have the nomination from 30% of the 192 divisions, and for deputy president it is 20%. For the post of VP, the quota will be smaller.

The EGM of Gua Musang was read as the support for Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah to for the top post. And do not forget, Muhiddin also seems to shows a great deal of interest in the top post.

For MCA, the national chairman is facing a great deal of pressure from the ground, notably Chua Jui Meng , Dr. Chua Sui Lek and the like.

So what is happening now with the political parties within the BN is seeking change of leadership rather than getting more united to face the Opposition.

True, the failure of BN in the last poll is definitely at least partially atributed to the failure of the party leaders in their respective leadership, both as the CEO of each party as well as the general in leading their team in the campaign. And it is equally true that without a change in leadership, the BN has very little chance in making a come back. And thus this current ground sweal to change the leadership.

But if the Parties do not have the wisedom to balance the need to change the leaders and the need to do some thing fast to face the onslought of the Opposition, the political scene make take a turn of even more serious consequences, and the BN may lost the majority in the Dewan Rakyat to the Opposition. If indeed that happens, then the struggle for party leadership seem so meaningless.

I am here talking about the on-going and intensifying lobbying of the Oppostion, especially Anuar Ibrahim in person, to get the MPs from the BM to cross over to the Pakatan Rakyat.

The potential is definitely there, with the Political Parties in East Malaysian show great unhappiness over the sharing of Administrative Power, and the factions within UMNO who are unhappy over the choice of members to the Cabinet. With no appointment of minister from the Wanita Wing and the overcrowding of ministers in the Johore State, it shows that the PM has use the appointments as a tool to consolidate his power in this turbulance time.

What is widely speculated is that Anuar will choose a seat, out of the 31 won by the PKR to contest after April 15, and his chance of winning is beyond doubt. Other says that there are also UMNO's own MPs willing to relinguish a seat for him to contest, and he may take that option just to show his prowess of influence at this point of time. In any way, he is most likely to check in as a Member of Parliament in June or July.

With him sitting at the bench, the scenario is totally different. His wife,who is the current serving Oppositon Leader once said that the Pakatan is a "Government in Waiting" and now you can say the Anuar the MP is the "PM in waiting".

Avalanch may happen any time. All you need is 31 MPs from the government bench to cross the floor, and that is it:- A new govenment is born.

But in June/July, the party elections of UMNO and MCA has only reach the Division level, and the split of the parties will cut deep. This is the time when the BN is lease able to defend itself agians the onslaught of the Pakatan.

In short the timing is very bad for the BN.

We may be seeing the beginning of the end of a Political Era.

Now we know the sad feeling of great historians who witness the fall of empires, knowing that there are things which if properly done will be able to reverse the trend and yet the situation is such that those things will never be done.

Guan Eng gets nothing from the PM

The Chief Minister of Penang Lim Guan Eng had met the PM this morning and the meeting is less than cordial.

This is expected since during the March General Election, much has been said by the Opposition about the BN and in particular on its leader Pak Lah. And I would be surprise if Pak Lah embraces Guan Eng on this much publicized meeting. Put it in another way, if the table is turned and Guan Eng is in Pak Lah’ shoes, he would also be less than cordial. Nobody should blame Pak Lah, because he is also human and it is good to display human’s natural behavior.

There is only one important outcome from the meeting, and that is the PM had refused to support the idea of using Petronas money to build Penang’s Second Bridge. It would not be wise for Guan Eng to play up the issue, because there are many way this issue can be read by the people. On one hand, the DAP may want to show that the Federal Government does not want to help the people of Penang, but on the other hand, there may be also people who read it as a confirmation that the State Government of Penang had fail to get the support from the Federal Government and as long as DAP continue to rule Penang, this less than cordial relationship may not be good for the State and the people. It appear that this is a two-sided blade which may cut either way, and the out come may be un-predictable.

So far the New State Government of Penang had play this blame game many times, announcing that they are applying for this and that from the Federal Government even before the application is actually made. The calculation may be that at the end of a period, they can produce a list of things which the State Government had applied and had been denied by the Federal Government, and this may cause the people of Penang to blame the Federal Government. This may or may not work, because sooner or later, some people will start to tell the State Government to “stop blaming others, and start looking into what can the State Government do for the people using your own resources”. And this may happen very soon.

On the issue of open tender, Guan Eng sound apologetic saying that he told Pak Lah, that he is just following the rules and regulations set by the Federal Government. He should not be apologetic about it, because the open tender system is a good practice and it takes away the possibility of corruption and nepotism. And when he said he is just following the rules and regulation of the Federal Government, he seems to have given credit to them. And does it also mean that all that is said about the corrupt practice of the Government in awarding projects are all wrong after all ?

Brave Attempt

So the three parties which together has gained the most from the Political Tsunami on 8th of March finally make the announcement that they are forming the People's Alliance (Pakatan Rakyat).

This would be logically the next necessary step to take if the three parties were to consolidate the unexpected success in the last poll to create something which will more sustainable. Let us be honest about it. The people has voted for the Oppositions largely as a protest to the corruption, decadence and the arrogance of the ruling Barisan National. The Chinese has voted for the PAS and the Malay has voted for the DAP. But there are a large number of the voters when asked the name and background of the candidate they voted for would not be able to answer. They had simply voted for the candidate who stood against the hated Barisan National. It is that simple.

So as the excitement subsides, the people start asking themselves whether they have done the right thing? Whether they have not gone overboard? They now keep a watchful eye on the parties and the candidate they voted in and try to give them the benefit of doubt. Many of them fear that they may have voted in the wrong party or the wrong candidate.

Many would suspect that if the election is to take place again one week after the current poll, the result may be quite different.

Sustainability is now the key-word.

Anuar, Kit Siang and Hadi very well know it.

Especially important is not to have the 5 state governments which they control now each go their merry own way and do things. Worse, the policy on a specific matter in one state may contradict that in another state. This will put them in bad light, even to appear as political double talkers.

But the speed with which the three parties come together to have a preliminary agreement on forming an alliance is commendable. At least it shows that they are serious, purposeful and determined.

The announcement was made in a Press Conference co-chaired by Anuar, Kit Siang and Hadi Awang, and the most sensitive question raised by the press are two:

• Has DAP accepted the establishment of an Islamic State in Malaysian, as that is the political objective of PAS as enshrined in its party constitution? If the answer is "no", then the next question is ...
• Has PAS given up the political objective of establishing an Islamic State ?

The answer is simple and expected : The People's Alliance (Pakatan Rakyat PR) strive to deliver the value which is common to all, namely justice, freedom, democracy and transparency etc.

But the press will never stop at this level of answer. PAS's President is hard-pressed to give a definite answer on the question whether they are giving up the Islam State.

Unable to provide a politically correct answer, he simply refuse to answer the question.

As far as i can see, this question will continue to be raised in the future and Hadi will have to find a good answer fast.

It is not going to be just a theoretical question, because a Secretariat which consists of the top people from the three parties (perhaps their best ideologues) will soon sit down to draft a document which will be the common policy guideline for the 5 states under their control, and that include Kelantan which PAS has control for many years. This means a lot of the things which are being practiced Kelantan will have to fit into a set of common policy which is acceptable in all 5 states. This is not easy because the five states cover the most remote, such as Kelantan and the most modern such as Selangor, and as such the social-economical setting are very different.

I can see the difficulties in drafting such a policy document. I must not say they will fail, but I do admire their courage in trying.

If they manage to come up with such a policy document which is applicable in all five states which represent nearly a full spectrum of Malaysia's local social-economic scene, I would applaud for them.

Malaysian awaits the result.

Reality Sets in?

Today, the new Chief Minister of Penang Says that the State Government will follow the rules and regulation of the federal government for the open tender system for public projects. And the rule is that open tender system will only apply if the project value is above RM 200,000, and for those below the old system of allowing the Class-F contractors (read as bumiputera with political background) to "share" amongst themselves.

Well, I must say that the reality sets in fast.

Immediately after the March 8 election, the New Government says that they will run Penang "Free of NEP (New Economic Policy) ". A few days later, the New CM says that the rule is now:-

• For Projects, the open tender system will apply to those project worth RM 20,000 above;
• For Procurement, the open tender system will apply to those projects worth RM 50,000 above.

Now barely three weeks after the election, the tone has changed.

I must says that the mood of enthusiasm during the election and the excitement after the resounding victory of the Opposition has subsided now and the feeling of doubt has set in.

I wish some body from the opposition, such as Jeff Ooi will say some thing.