Saturday, April 5, 2008

The time is not on the side of the Barisan National.


24 hrs after UMNO Youth Chairman Hishammuddin announced that he will not seek another term, two person has come forward and offer themselves, and they are Mohd Khir Toyo and Mukhriz Mahathir. The first one is the former Menteri Besar of Selangor and the other is the son of the former Prime Minister.

On the other hand, Gua Musang division had the EGM and they have, amongst other thing, propose to abolish the Quota System in the UMNO election process. Under this rule, anybody who intended to be eligible for the post of the National President must have the nomination from 30% of the 192 divisions, and for deputy president it is 20%. For the post of VP, the quota will be smaller.

The EGM of Gua Musang was read as the support for Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah to for the top post. And do not forget, Muhiddin also seems to shows a great deal of interest in the top post.

For MCA, the national chairman is facing a great deal of pressure from the ground, notably Chua Jui Meng , Dr. Chua Sui Lek and the like.

So what is happening now with the political parties within the BN is seeking change of leadership rather than getting more united to face the Opposition.

True, the failure of BN in the last poll is definitely at least partially atributed to the failure of the party leaders in their respective leadership, both as the CEO of each party as well as the general in leading their team in the campaign. And it is equally true that without a change in leadership, the BN has very little chance in making a come back. And thus this current ground sweal to change the leadership.

But if the Parties do not have the wisedom to balance the need to change the leaders and the need to do some thing fast to face the onslought of the Opposition, the political scene make take a turn of even more serious consequences, and the BN may lost the majority in the Dewan Rakyat to the Opposition. If indeed that happens, then the struggle for party leadership seem so meaningless.

I am here talking about the on-going and intensifying lobbying of the Oppostion, especially Anuar Ibrahim in person, to get the MPs from the BM to cross over to the Pakatan Rakyat.

The potential is definitely there, with the Political Parties in East Malaysian show great unhappiness over the sharing of Administrative Power, and the factions within UMNO who are unhappy over the choice of members to the Cabinet. With no appointment of minister from the Wanita Wing and the overcrowding of ministers in the Johore State, it shows that the PM has use the appointments as a tool to consolidate his power in this turbulance time.

What is widely speculated is that Anuar will choose a seat, out of the 31 won by the PKR to contest after April 15, and his chance of winning is beyond doubt. Other says that there are also UMNO's own MPs willing to relinguish a seat for him to contest, and he may take that option just to show his prowess of influence at this point of time. In any way, he is most likely to check in as a Member of Parliament in June or July.

With him sitting at the bench, the scenario is totally different. His wife,who is the current serving Oppositon Leader once said that the Pakatan is a "Government in Waiting" and now you can say the Anuar the MP is the "PM in waiting".

Avalanch may happen any time. All you need is 31 MPs from the government bench to cross the floor, and that is it:- A new govenment is born.

But in June/July, the party elections of UMNO and MCA has only reach the Division level, and the split of the parties will cut deep. This is the time when the BN is lease able to defend itself agians the onslaught of the Pakatan.

In short the timing is very bad for the BN.

We may be seeing the beginning of the end of a Political Era.

Now we know the sad feeling of great historians who witness the fall of empires, knowing that there are things which if properly done will be able to reverse the trend and yet the situation is such that those things will never be done.

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